AGFLOW PRODUCER BRIEF

Know when to sell, store, hedge, lock basis —

or wait.

AgFlow Producer Brief is a weekly soybean decision framework for producers who need practical grain-marketing guidance without market noise. Each week, it converts futures, basis, carry, export flow, crush demand, ownership, and positioning into clear old-crop and new-crop actions. The objective is not prediction — it is disciplined farm-level decision-making.
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BUILT FOR:
Soybean producers · Farm managers · Family farms · Commercial growers · Grain-marketing decision makers
HOW THE DECISION FRAMEWORK WORKS

The framework evaluates the soybean system through a practical producer decision hierarchy.

01

Market structure

The balance sheet defines the market boundary.

The framework evaluates:
→ ending stocks,
→ stocks-to-use,
→ current supply,
→ forward supply,
→ and whether scarcity is actually present.

Structure shows whether the market is supportive, tight, balanced, or scarce.
02

Market confirmation

Market strength must be confirmed by real demand and local cash signals.

The framework monitors:
→ export flow,
→ crush demand,
→ basis strength,
→ futures spreads,
→ carry economics,
→ and inventory movement.

Confirmation shows whether strength is real, local, and actionable.
03

Farm-level risk

A market opportunity only matters if it fits the farm’s position.

The framework evaluates:
→ old-crop ownership,
→ new-crop pricing exposure,
→ storage economics,
→ delivery and roll risk,
→ hedge timing,
→ cash-flow needs,
→ and local basis opportunity.

Farm risk determines whether to act now, wait, or act in stages.
04

Producer decision

The final output is not a forecast. It is a weekly decision guide.

The framework determines:
→ what to sell,
→ what to store,
→ what to hedge,
→ what basis to lock,
→ what to wait on,
→ and what to watch next.

No prediction-first marketing.
Disciplined producer decision-making only.
DISCIPLINED PRODUCER DECISION-MAKING

The framework does not recommend aggressive action unless the evidence supports it.

AgFlow Producer Brief operates as a decision framework, not prediction-first marketing advice.
A stronger market alone does not automatically mean sell everything, store everything, hedge everything, or price new crop too early.

The framework requires confirmation across:
→ current supply,
→ forward supply,
→ export flow,
→ crush demand,
→ basis strength,
→ futures spreads,
→ carry economics,
→ storage return,
→ delivery and roll risk,
→ and local cash-market conditions.

If confirmation weakens:
→ old-crop sales become staged,
→ basis locks become selective,
→ storage requires paid carry,
→ hedge decisions require clear triggers,
→ new-crop pricing remains incremental,
→ and waiting may be the better decision.

The objective is not maximizing market conviction.
The objective is helping producers make disciplined, farm-specific grain-marketing decisions.
HOW THE FRAMEWORK WORKS

A weekly structure for old-crop, new-crop, storage, basis, hedge, and pricing decisions.

PRODUCER DECISION HIERARCHY
MARKET STRUCTURE
What the soybean balance sheet allows

MARKET CONFIRMATION
Whether exports, crush, basis, spreads, and carry support action

FARM-LEVEL RISK
Storage, cash flow, delivery exposure, hedge timing, and local basis

OLD-CROP / NEW-CROP SEPARATION
Different decisions for bushels already owned versus bushels expected to be produced

PRODUCER ACTION
Sell, store, hedge, lock basis, forward price, or wait

DISCIPLINED DECISION FRAMEWORK ACTIVE

Producer action expands only when:current supply, forward supply, export flow, crush demand, basis, carry economics, storage return, delivery risk, cash-flow needs, and farm-specific targetsalign clearly. The objective is not prediction. The objective is disciplined, staged grain-marketing decisions.
THE FRAMEWORK MONITORS

→ current supply,
→ forward supply,
→ export flow,
→ crush demand,
→ basis strength,
→ futures spreads,
→ carry economics,
→ storage return,
→ delivery and roll risk,
→ local cash bids,
→ and crop-development risk.

The objective is to determine whether the market supports action — or whether the better decision is to wait, stage sales, preserve optionality, or protect downside risk.

PRODUCER DECISION FRAMEWORK

The soybean system is evaluated through five producer decision layers:
→ Market structure
→ Market confirmation
→ Farm-level risk
→ Old-crop / new-crop separation
→ Producer action

Every week, AgFlow determines whether producers should:→ sell old crop,
→ store only if carry pays,
→ lock basis selectively,
→ hedge downside risk,
→ price new crop incrementally,
→ preserve optionality,
→ or wait.

The output is not a forecast.
It is a disciplined weekly decision framework for soybean producers.

Built for disciplined grain-marketing decisions.

Every Monday at 8:30 AM, AgFlow publishes the weekly soybean decision framework for producers evaluating:
→ old-crop sales,
→ new-crop pricing,
→ basis locks,
→ storage economics,
→ hedge timing,
→ delivery and roll risk,
→ local cash bids,
→ and crop-development risk.

The framework identifies:→ what to sell,
→ what to store,
→ what to hedge,
→ what basis to lock,
→ what to wait on,
→ and what to watch next

.Not prediction-first marketing.
Disciplined producer decision-making.
Get Weekly Producer Brief
$29 / month. Monthly subscription. Cancel anytime.
WHO READS THIS

Built for producers making grain-marketing decisions every week.

This is for you if...

→ You grow soybeans and need a clearer framework for old-crop and new-crop decisions.
→ You decide when to sell, store, hedge, lock basis, forward price, or wait.
→ You want weekly guidance that connects futures, basis, carry, exports, crush demand, and local cash-market conditions.
→ You care about disciplined decisions, not prediction-first market noise.
→ You want to act in stages instead of making large one-time decisions under pressure.

This is not for you if...

→ You want personalized marketing advice or a guaranteed price forecast.
→ You want daily trade signals or flat-price calls.
→ You want someone to tell you to sell everything, store everything, or hedge everything.
→ You do not want to apply the framework to your own cost structure, storage capacity, local basis, cash-flow needs, and risk tolerance.
INSIDE EVERY ISSUE

A weekly soybean decision framework for producers.

Every Monday at 8:30 AM, AgFlow delivers a structured producer brief built around the same practical questions every week: what to sell, what to store, what to hedge, what basis to lock, what to wait on, and what to watch next.

You learn the framework once — and use it every week to make clearer old-crop and new-crop decisions.
01
Producer Decision Sheet
02
Weekly Producer Posture
03
Old-Crop Decision Framework
04
New-Crop Decision Framework
05
Cash Sale Guidance
06
Basis Lock Guidance
07
Storage & Carry Economics
08
Hedge & Roll Watch
09
Forward Pricing Guidance
10
Harvest Basis Watch
11
Weekly Execution Map
12
Key Signal Drivers
13
Old-Crop Bottom Line
14
New-Crop Bottom Line
15
Main Risk
16
Main Opportunity
SAMPLE PRODUCER DECISION OUTPUT

Example weekly action map for soybean producers.

COMMON QUESTIONS

About the Producer Brief framework.

How is this different from most market commentary?
Most market commentary tells producers what happened in the market or offers a directional opinion. AgFlow Producer Brief is different. It translates the soybean system into practical grain-marketing decisions: what to sell, what to store, what to hedge, what basis to lock, what to wait on, and what to watch next.

The objective is not prediction.
The objective is disciplined farm-level decision-making.
Is this personalized marketing advice?
No. AgFlow Producer Brief is a decision framework, not personalized marketing advice. Producers should apply the framework to their own cost structure, storage capacity, local basis, crop insurance position, cash-flow needs, production risk, and risk tolerance.
Is this a signal service?
No. AgFlow is not a trade signal service. The brief does not issue buy signals, sell signals, daily price targets, or guaranteed flat-price calls.It helps producers evaluate whether current evidence supports staged selling, selective basis locks, storage, hedging, new-crop pricing, or waiting.
Who is the Producer Brief built for?
The framework is built for soybean producers, farm managers, family farms, commercial growers, and grain-marketing decision makers who want a clearer weekly structure for old-crop and new-crop decisions.

It is especially useful for producers who manage stored bushels, local basis, hedge timing, delivery decisions, forward pricing, and cash-flow needs.
What does the framework evaluate every week?
Every Monday at 8:30 AM, the framework evaluates the soybean system through producer-relevant decision layers:
→ current supply,
→ forward supply,
→ export flow,
→ crush demand,
→ basis strength,
→ futures spreads,
→ carry economics,
→ storage return,
→ delivery and roll risk,
→ positioning,
→ global flow,
→ China demand,
→ and crop-development risk.

The output is organized into old-crop decisions, new-crop decisions, a weekly execution map, key signal drivers, and a bottom-line action framework.
Why is old crop separated from new crop?
Because bushels already owned and bushels expected to be produced require different decisions.

Old crop is driven by cash bids, basis, storage return, delivery risk, hedge rolls, and carry economics.

New crop is driven by futures targets, production uncertainty, harvest basis, downside protection, crop development, and farm-specific margin levels.

Combining them creates bad decisions. The Producer Brief separates them deliberately.
Why are the reports detailed?
Because grain-marketing decisions are rarely driven by one variable. A futures rally can look bullish while basis is weak. Storage can look attractive until interest, shrink, handling, delivery risk, and basis risk are included. New-crop pricing can look urgent until production uncertainty is considered.

The detail is the discipline.
Is the data proprietary?
The underlying market data used by AgFlow is public. The proprietary layer is the decision framework itself — how the data is sequenced, how conflicting signals are interpreted, how old-crop and new-crop decisions are separated, and how the final producer action map is produced.

The value is not raw data access.
The value is disciplined interpretation for producer decisions.

Turn soybean market complexity into clearer farm-level decisions.

Every Monday at 8:30 AM.

A streamlined weekly soybean decision framework that helps producers decide what to sell,
what to store, what to hedge, what basis to lock, what to wait on, and what to watch next.

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$29 / month. Delivered every Monday. Cancel anytime.

Data-driven insights for the global agricultural markets.