FIVE GOVERNANCE CONSTRAINTS
The framework operates under five explicit constraints. None can be overridden.
Fail-Closed Logic
When required inputs are missing, delayed, or contradictory, the system defaults to no change. The framework does not fill gaps with inference or produce a best-guess posture under uncertainty.
In practice: a week with deteriorating export data and contradictory basis signals produces a restricted posture — not a conditional one.
Regime Locking
Regimes are declared using numeric thresholds derived from supply conditions, flow behavior, and spread economics. Once declared, the regime stays fixed until defined invalidation conditions are met across multiple confirmation layers — not reversed by a single data point or a narrative shift.
In practice: a one-week basis spike does not invalidate a balanced regime. Sustained export acceleration combined with carry failure and broad basis propagation might.
Flow Invalidation Rules
Balance-sheet revisions do not override observed physical flows. A USDA revision to ending stocks does not authorize action until exports, crush, and basis propagation confirm the revision is operationally real.
In practice: the spreadsheet changed. The physical system has not confirmed it yet. The framework says wait.
Methodology Boundaries
No forecasts. No scenarios. No discretionary judgment. No price targets.
The framework does not ask what might happen. It asks what the evidence currently supports.
Auditability
Every classification traces to primary data and locked rules — USDA WASDE, export inspections, AMS reports, COT positioning, regional basis quotes, futures structure. The same inputs produce the same classification under the same conditions, week over week.
Authority is derived from structure — not from the analyst's conviction.
