That may become one of the most important questions in the soybean complex.

USDA now projects 2026/27 U.S. soybean crush at 2.78 billion bushels, supported by robust crush margins and demand for both soybean meal and soybean oil.

But higher crush creates a structural reality:

You cannot produce more soybean oil without also producing more soybean meal.

And the balance sheet shows just how important meal exports are becoming.

For 2026/27, USDA projects:

• Soybean meal production: 65.8 million short tons
• Domestic disappearance: 43.98 million short tons
• Exports: 22.7 million short tons

Compared with 2025/26, that means:
• Meal production rises by roughly 2.5 million short tons
• Domestic disappearance increases by only about 0.3 million tons
• Exports increase by roughly 2.2 million tons

‍In other words:

USDA currently expects exports to absorb most of the incremental U.S. soybean meal production.

That is the key point.

The incremental supply increasingly has to clear through domestic consumption and exports, and exports are carrying much of the adjustment.

USDA raised its 2026/27 meal export forecast by 700,000 short tons in August alone, to 22.7 million tons.

Demand is showing up.

On August 11, USDA reported a 180,000-MT sale of U.S. soybean meal to the Philippines for 2026/27.

But there is also a tension worth watching.

Global soybean meal consumption is still growing, but USDA expects the growth rate to slow to roughly 3% in 2026/27, from nearly 6% in 2025/26.

So this is not a story about demand disappearing.

The real question is:

Can U.S. soybean meal capture enough of that global demand growth to clear rising production at economically attractive prices?

That is what I think of as the Soybean Meal Absorption Test.

The transmission looks like this:

Record crush → more meal production → domestic demand absorbs part → exports must absorb much of the incremental supply → meal prices and export competitiveness determine how economically that supply clears → meal value feeds back into crush margins and processor run rates.

For the coming months, I would watch four things closely:

1. Meal export pace
Are sales and shipments keeping pace with USDA’s higher export forecast?

2. Destination diversification
Is incremental U.S. meal finding enough buyers across Southeast Asia, Latin America and other importing regions?

3. Meal prices and basis
Can the additional supply clear without significant price deterioration?

4. Crush margins
If meal values weaken, can strength elsewhere in the soy complex keep processing economics attractive?

If exports continue expanding, U.S. crush has an important release valve.

If they do not, the adjustment may eventually have to come through meal prices, crush margins — or processor run rates.

That is why soybean meal exports may become one of the most important physical signals in the soybean complex over the next year.

Strong soybean oil economics can support the incentive to crush.
Meal still has to clear.