I founded AgFlow Intelligence to help agricultural market professionals make better commercial decisions by connecting what happens in Chicago with what is actually happening in the physical soybean market.

My research focuses on futures spreads, basis, crush demand, exports, ownership, positioning, storage economics, and Brazil–U.S. competitiveness.

AgFlow was built around a simple principle:

Better information should lead to better decisions.

Agricultural markets do not suffer from a lack of information.

Every week, market participants are presented with futures prices, USDA reports, export data, crush statistics, cash bids, basis levels, positioning data, weather forecasts, and competing market narratives.

The challenge is not finding more information.

The challenge is determining what the information means together.

That is why I built AgFlow Intelligence.

AgFlow starts with Chicago, evaluates the forward curve, tests that message against the physical soybean market, and then integrates fundamentals and positioning to determine what the broader market structure is signaling.

The objective is not to predict every market move.

It is to create a disciplined framework for understanding whether the evidence favors selling, maintaining ownership, locking basis, hedging, storing, or waiting.

State before forecast. Evidence before escalation.

A soybean market signal rarely comes from one number.

The most useful information comes from understanding how different parts of the market interact.

Futures & Spreads
Chicago establishes the starting point.
Nearby futures, deferred contracts, spreads, carry, inverses, and changes in curve structure help identify how the market is pricing time, inventory, scarcity, and storage.

Physical Market
The futures market must then be tested against the physical market.
Cash bids, regional basis, processors, elevators, river markets, and export channels help determine whether physical demand is confirming—or rejecting—the message from Chicago.

Fundamentals
Crush, exports, inventories, crop development, supply and demand, and ownership conditions provide the structural context behind the market.

Positioning
Managed-money and commercial positioning help identify how financial and commercial participants are positioned relative to the underlying physical market.

Global Transmission
The U.S. soybean market does not operate in isolation.

Brazilian production, export competitiveness, currencies, freight, China, and global trade flows influence how soybean value moves across regions and through the international system.

AgFlow brings these layers together rather than analyzing them independently.

The central question behind AgFlow is simple:

What is the market paying participants to do?

The answer may be different depending on the situation.

Sometimes the market is paying for storage.

Sometimes it is rewarding basis ownership.

Sometimes futures should be priced while basis remains open.

Sometimes physical tightness justifies maintaining ownership.

And sometimes the evidence simply says to wait.

The purpose of AgFlow is to make those distinctions more visible.

My career has been built around analyzing complex decisions.

I began in civil engineering and later moved into corporate finance, investment analysis, real estate development, consulting, and entrepreneurship.

Across those disciplines, the underlying work has remained remarkably consistent:

understand the system, identify the important variables, evaluate risk, and translate information into a decision framework.

That analytical approach ultimately led me to agricultural commodity markets and the development of AgFlow Intelligence.

Today, my work is focused primarily on the soybean complex and the relationship between futures markets and physical-market behavior.

B.S., Civil Engineering
Federal University of Minas Gerais — UFMG

Specialization, Engineering Economics
Fundação Dom Cabral

MBA, Finance
University of Colorado Denver

My current research at AgFlow Intelligence includes:

- U.S. soybean futures and forward-curve structure
- Regional cash bids and basis transmission
- Soybean crush economics and processor demand
- U.S. soybean export flows
- Inventory, ownership, and physical-market conditions
- Managed-money and commercial positioning
- Storage and merchandising economics
- Brazil–U.S. soybean competitiveness
- Global soybean trade and price transmission

The market rarely speaks through one number. The signal comes from understanding how futures, basis, physical demand, fundamentals, and positioning interact.

AgFlow is designed to make those relationships easier to see.

Not by creating more noise.

By organizing the evidence.

AgFlow Soybean Market Signal
A concise weekly assessment connecting Chicago, the forward curve, physical-market confirmation, fundamentals, positioning, and commercial posture.

Cash Market Maps
Regional analysis of cash bids, basis behavior, futures transmission, and physical-market conditions across important U.S. soybean markets.

Inside the Soybean System
Research and education focused on how the soybean market actually works—from basis and futures spreads to ownership, merchandising, crush, exports, and market transmission.

AgFlow Intelligence exists to help people who work in the soybean market move from:

information → interpretation → decision.

The goal is not certainty.

The goal is a clearer understanding of the evidence, the state of the market, and the commercial choices available.

Receive AgFlow's weekly soybean market assessment every Sunday at 6:00 PM ET.

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